Quarterback QB
The hardest position to model. Tape, processing, and off-script play matter more than box-score numbers — we lean heavily on scout consensus and completion rate over expected.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many quarterbacks land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 12 quarterbacks with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2020 board, tier by tier.
Joe Burrow out of LSU is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 1 overall. The break below is soft: Tua Tagovailoa projects just 7 projected picks after Burrow, so the tier line is a label more than a wall.
Tua Tagovailoa out of Alabama is the first-round tier by himself, projected No. 8 overall. Mind the gap after Tagovailoa: Justin Herbert is next, and he is 25 picks away.
The Day 2 tier runs from Justin Herbert at No. 33 down to Jacob Eason at No. 105. The drop behind Eason is the story — Jake Fromm does not come off the board for another 58 picks. One split worth knowing: consensus puts Jordan Love at No. 35, 39 spots above our call.
Jake Fromm leads a 6-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the QB board — starting at a projected No. 163 overall. One split worth knowing: consensus puts James Morgan at No. 163, 52 spots above our call.