On the live board, bust risk sits at 16% and the realistic range is No. 107 to No. 257.
The model graded Nick Gargiulo at pick #196; he was actually picked #256 by DEN. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
We had him No. 196 on draft night; DEN didn't call his name until No. 256 — a 60-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Nick Gargiulo at #196 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DEN took him at No. 256, 60 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 16%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #207 pre-draft; our board was 11 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
1 public board track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by his charted gap run block grade, how many boards rank him top-100, and lowest board ranking.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Nick Gargiulo, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at Offensive line, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior Offensive line prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Ezeudu | OL | 2022 | #67 | ↓5 pts | Backup | 0.24 |
| Sean Rhyan | OL | 2022 | #92 | ↑9 pts | Contributor | 0.76 |
| Kendrick Green | OL | 2021 | #87 | ↓25 pts | Contributor | 1.13 |
| Marcus McKethan | OL | 2022 | #173 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.32 |
| Doug Kramer | OL | 2022 | #207 | ↑7 pts | Bust | 1.36 |