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2024 NFL Draft prospect
Christian Jones
On the live board, bust risk sits at 9% and the realistic range is No. 46 to No. 223.
rank#102$1.2MCompMarquis Hayes
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Christian Jones at pick #102; he was actually picked #162 by ARI. 7 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -1.2 of 20 per season). So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 6 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#102OL·Texas
We had him No. 102 on draft night; ARI didn't call his name until No. 162 — a 60-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production6
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports