Refreshed just now
rank#137$1.1M
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Marquis Hayes at pick #137; he was actually picked #257 by ARI. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. Model predicted $6M/yr; actual $0M (over by $6M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#137OL·Oklahoma
We had him No. 137 on draft night; ARI didn't call his name until No. 257 — a 120-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Marquis Hayes at #137 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and ARI took him at No. 257, 120 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 15%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #53 pre-draft; our board sat 84 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports