On the live board, bust risk sits at 6% and the realistic range is No. 21 to No. 198.
The model graded Delmar Glaze at pick #77; he was actually picked #77 by LVR. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 4.1 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 3%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 1 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $8M/yr.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
We had him No. 77 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — LVR took him at No. 77. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Delmar Glaze at #77 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and LVR took him at No. 77. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 6%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #138 pre-draft; our board was 61 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 3, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
2 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: age and his charted total career snaps. Working against him: athleticism (RAS).
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Delmar Glaze, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at Offensive line, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior Offensive line prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Burford | OL | 2022 | #134 | ↓27 pts | Starter | 1.43 |
| Lecitus Smith | OL | 2022 | #215 | ↓9 pts | Bust | 1.46 |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | 2022 | #257 | no data | TBD | 1.47 |
| James Hudson | OL | 2021 | #110 | ↓6 pts | Contributor | 1.88 |
| Aaron Banks | OL | 2021 | #48 | →2 pts | Starter | 2.10 |