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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2019 board/
  3. Rock Ya-Sin
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Rock Ya-Sin
2019 NFL Draft prospect

Rock Ya-Sin

CB·Temple
age 22.9 · 6'0" · 192 lb

On the live board, bust risk sits at 18% and the realistic range is No. 10 to No. 71.

28rank#28$3.6MCompArtie Burns
→ IND's 2019 class
Print sheet
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Rock Ya-Sin at pick #28; he was actually picked #34 by IND. 7 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.7 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $4.0M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 12% peak across 6 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $5M/yr, actual was $4M.

Rock Ya-SinCBDraftanomics #28
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction6Risk1Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction
#28CB·Temple

We had him No. 28 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — IND took him at No. 34. The seasons since are the scoreboard.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production6

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk1

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Rock Ya-Sin at #28 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and IND took him at No. 34. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and top-50 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 18%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #49 pre-draft; our board was 21 spots higher.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#28
1st Roundrange #10–#71 · volatile
Bust Probability?
18%
0.92× CB / S class avg (20%)
≈ class avg
Model trust: WEAK
Actual NFL Pick?
#34
IND · Rd 2
Career Outcome · 7 seasons?
39.8
5.7 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
21%
Bust
1%
Starter
53%
Role
24%

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

Second contract · signed
$4.0M/yr
1 years, $4M total.
We projected $5.5M/yr on draft night — close to the money.
Bust risk
40%
comp-based — 2 of 5 closest comps busted
Model says: 18%⚠ the CB / S bust model has no real track record here — trust the comps above instead
Public-board consensus

25 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Aligned
Gap (actual − predicted)
+6

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: how many boards rank him top-100, how many boards rank him top-50, and number of boards ranking him. Nothing in the profile pulled the grade down.

Production trajectory
-0.02
HS recruit rating
+0.02

Model read

Model grade
0.74 of 1
Confidence?
99%
Predicted round
1

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
0
/ peak 12
Below-average play
Across 6 NFL seasons.
4-tier outlook?
Starter
Model expects a solid starter career
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
21%
Starter
53%
Role
24%
Bust
1%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Model market value
$5.5M
($0.0M – $12.3M)
rotational / depth
Actual: $4.0M(+$1.5M)
Model-predicted second-deal AAV ($M/yr).

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Risk profile is clean

Risk score17· CLEAN

Everything that could go wrong with Rock Ya-Sin, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Predicted-pick range#10–71 · 61-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Bust probability18%
    Modest bust risk — normal territory for the position.
  • Age22.9 yrs
    Within the typical CB draft-age band (~23).
  • Public-board coverage25 sources
    Plenty of public boards have a read — the grade is well corroborated.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
Comp group has bust risk
medium
2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Kalan Reed, Rasul Douglas. Mixed signal from history.
Reasons to buy
No opportunity flags raised.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at CB / S, age, and recent capital invested.

NE#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
LA#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
ARI#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters4Roster spots short1Recent picks spent hereHeavy
SF#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
JAX#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereHeavy

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior CB / S prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Artie BurnsCB2016#25
↑7 pts
Starter1.48
Kendall FullerCB2016#84
→2 pts
Starter1.57
Juston BurrisCB2016#118
↑26 pts
Contributor1.74
Kalan ReedCB2016#253
→3 pts
Backup1.77
Rasul DouglasCB2017#99
→0 pts
Bust1.86
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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