Running back RB
Production + breakout age + age-at-draft are the primary signals. Volume is heavily devalued vs the 2010s.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many running backs land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 20 running backs with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
The blue-chip shelf is one name deep: Ezekiel Elliott out of Ohio St., pegged at No. 4 overall. After Elliott the board breathes — Kenneth Dixon projects 15 picks later.
The first-round shelf is one name deep: Kenneth Dixon out of Louisiana Tech, pegged at No. 19 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 26 projected picks between Dixon and Devontae Booker, the next name down. Kenneth Dixon is the argument in this tier — No. 19 on our board against a consensus No. 81.
Devontae Booker leads a 5-deep Day 2 group — the meat of the RB board — starting at a projected No. 45 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 72 projected picks between Perkins and Jordan Howard, the next name down. C.J. Prosise is the argument in this tier — No. 48 on our board against a consensus No. 119.
This is where the class lives: 13 running backs carry a Day 3 grade, with Jordan Howard out of Indiana at the front of the line at No. 136 overall. Jonathan Williams is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 63, our board waits until No. 183.