Offensive tackle OT
Athleticism + games started + Senior Bowl invite carry most of the weight — college stats say little about offensive line play.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many offensive tackles land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 18 offensive tackles with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2016 board, tier by tier.
Jack Conklin out of Michigan St. is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 3 overall. After Conklin the board breathes — Jason Spriggs projects 11 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Jack Conklin: it says No. 3, the room says No. 18.
Jason Spriggs out of Indiana fronts a four-man first-round tier at No. 14 overall, with Tunsil and Stanley filling it out. Barely a seam here — Shon Coleman comes off just 4 picks later. Notably clean, too — nobody in the group trips the bust model, which has real signal at offensive tackle.
The Day 2 tier runs 5 deep, opening with Shon Coleman out of Auburn at No. 36 and closing with Brandon Shell at No. 89. The drop behind Shell is the story — Kyle Murphy does not come off the board for another 22 picks. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Joe Haeg: it says No. 71, the room says No. 122.
This is where the class lives: 8 offensive tackles carry a Day 3 grade, with Kyle Murphy out of Stanford at the front of the line at No. 111 overall. One split worth knowing: consensus puts John Theus at No. 54, 122 spots above our call.