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2016 NFL Draft prospect
John Theus
6'6" · 313 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 21% and the realistic range is No. 63 to No. 260.
rank#176$1M
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded John Theus at pick #176; he was actually picked #145 by SFO.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#176OT·Georgia
The league moved faster than our board — SFO took him at No. 145, 31 picks ahead of our No. 176 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had John Theus at #176 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and SFO took him at No. 145, 31 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 21%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #54 pre-draft; our board sat 122 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk0
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports