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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Kyle Murphy
6'6" · 305 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 3% and the realistic range is No. 37 to No. 209.
rank#111$1.2M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Kyle Murphy at pick #111; he was actually picked #200 by GNB.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#111OT·Stanford
We had him No. 111 on draft night; GNB didn't call his name until No. 200 — a 89-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Kyle Murphy at #111 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and GNB took him at No. 200, 89 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 3%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #100 pre-draft; our board sat 11 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Draftanomics Pick?
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk0
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports