Refreshed just now
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ty Sambrailo at pick #159; he was actually picked #59 by DEN. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $7M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#159OT·Colorado St.
The league moved faster than our board — DEN took him at No. 59, 100 picks ahead of our No. 159 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Ty Sambrailo at #159 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DEN took him at No. 59, 100 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 6%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports