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2015 NFL Draft prospect
B.J. Dubose
age 23.3 · 6'4" · 284 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 78% and the realistic range is No. 90 to No. 242.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded B.J. Dubose at pick #227; he was actually picked #193 by MIN.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#227EDGE·Louisville
The league moved faster than our board — MIN took him at No. 193, 34 picks ahead of our No. 227 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had B.J. Dubose at #227 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and MIN took him at No. 193, 34 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 78% — well above the position median; the model is flagging this as a high-variance pick.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports