Dynasty rookie board

The same career-value model that runs the big board, pointed at the only question a dynasty GM ever has: which rookies return fantasy production, and for how long. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends only — nobody starts a left tackle.

The 2027 class hasn’t been drafted yet, so this is a pre-draft dynasty watchlist — the signal before landing spots move the market. The board updates the night the real draft wraps next April.

Format1QB Superflex|Year2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022

1QB starts one quarterback, so even good QB prospects slide — QBs carry a 0.80 multiplier. Superflex starts two, which makes the position the scarcest asset in the format — QBs carry 1.30 instead. Nothing else changes between the two boards.

#	Player	Pos	College	Dynasty score	How it's built	Bust	Tier	Consensus
1	Jeremiah Smith	WR	Ohio State	87.2	79.3 × 1.10	7%	Elite	1
2	Cam Coleman	WR	Texas	84.1	76.4 × 1.10	8%	Elite	8
3	Ryan Williams	WR	Alabama	79.1	71.9 × 1.10	9% class average	Starter	21
4	Ryan Wingo	WR	Texas	66.2	60.2 × 1.10	9% class average	Starter	83
5	Omarion Miller	WR	Arizona State	63.0	57.3 × 1.10	9% class average	Starter	66
6	Nick Marsh	WR	Indiana	62.8	57.1 × 1.10	9% class average	Starter	42
7	Dante Moore	QB	Oregon	60.9	76.1 × 0.80	24%	Elite	6
8	Arch Manning	QB	Texas	57.3	71.7 × 0.80	2%	Elite	10
9	Mario Craver	WR	Texas A&M	56.0	50.9 × 1.10	9% class average	Starter	64
10	Kewan Lacy	RB	Ole Miss	54.7	64.4 × 0.85*	26%	Starter	27
11	Keshon Singleton	WR	Air Force	53.2	48.4 × 1.10	22%	Starter	—
12	Julian Sayin	QB	Ohio State	52.8	66.0 × 0.80	1%	Elite	23
13	Aaron Anderson	WR	LSU	51.5	46.8 × 1.10	24% class average	Starter	—
14	Nate Frazier	RB	Georgia	49.3	58.0 × 0.85*	27%	Starter	67
15	Terrance Carter Jr.	TE	Texas Tech	49.3	51.9 × 0.95	5%	Starter	79
16	Bryant Wesco Jr.	WR	Clemson	49.1	44.7 × 1.10	9% class average	Starter	112
17	LaNorris Sellers	QB	South Carolina	48.0	60.0 × 0.80	10%	Starter	36
18	Nikolas McMillan	WR	Buffalo	46.9	42.6 × 1.10	24% class average	Starter	—
19	Trey'Dez Green	TE	LSU	46.6	49.1 × 0.95	19%	Starter	25
20	Sam Leavitt	QB	LSU	45.4	56.8 × 0.80	17%	Starter	72
21	Isaiah Sategna	WR	Oklahoma	44.8	40.8 × 1.10	26%	Starter	140
22	Mark Fletcher Jr.	RB	Miami	44.7	52.6 × 0.85*	38%	Starter	82
23	Darius Taylor	RB	Minnesota	43.3	50.9 × 0.85*	36%	Starter	177
24	Jayce Brown	WR	LSU	43.1	39.2 × 1.10	22%	Starter	53
25	Darian Mensah	QB	Miami	42.7	53.3 × 0.80	19%	Starter	35
26	Marquis Johnson	WR	Mississippi State	42.6	38.7 × 1.10	24% class average	Elite	—
27	Mike Matthews	WR	Tennessee	42.4	38.5 × 1.10	9% class average	Starter	121
28	Harvey Broussard III	WR	Houston	42.0	38.2 × 1.10	24% class average	Elite	—
29	Tyler Dostin	TE	West Florida	42.0	44.2 × 0.95	21%	Elite	—
30	Luby Maurice	WR	Florida International	41.8	38.0 × 1.10	24% class average	Starter	—
31	CJ Carr	QB	Notre Dame	40.8	51.0 × 0.80	18%	Starter	24
32	Jayden Gibson	WR	South Carolina	40.0	36.4 × 1.10	24% class average	Elite	—
33	Junior Sherrill	WR	Vanderbilt	39.2	35.7 × 1.10	22%	Starter	52
34	Nico Iamaleava	QB	UCLA	38.8	48.4 × 0.80	25%	Elite	15
35	Andrew Rappleyea	TE	Penn State	38.7	40.7 × 0.95	23%	Starter	163
36	Johntay Cook	WR	Texas	38.6	35.1 × 1.10	24% class average	Starter	—
37	LJ Martin	RB	BYU	38.4	45.2 × 0.85*	32%	Starter	172
38	Tyler Cherry	QB	Indiana	37.4	46.8 × 0.80	28%	—	—
39	Isaac Brown	RB	Louisville	37.3	43.9 × 0.85*	30%	Starter	126
40	Kory Hall	WR	Colorado State	36.6	33.3 × 1.10	24% class average	Elite	—
41	Will Dixon	TE	Rhode Island	36.5	38.4 × 0.95	41%	Starter	—
42	DJ Lagway	QB	Baylor	35.8	44.7 × 0.80	24%	Starter	22
43	Demond Williams Jr.	QB	Washington	35.1	43.9 × 0.80	20%	Elite	18
44	Devon Dampier	QB	Utah	35.1	43.8 × 0.80	16%	—	—
45	Dylan Raiola	QB	Oregon	34.7	43.4 × 0.80	24%	Starter	5
46	Chrishon McCray	RB	Michigan State	34.5	40.6 × 0.85*	40%	Elite	—
47	Jordan Marshall	RB	Michigan	34.2	40.3 × 0.85*	39%	Starter	85
48	J'Koby Williams	RB	Texas Tech	34.1	40.2 × 0.85*	36%	Starter	—
49	Aidan Chiles	QB	Northwestern	33.8	42.2 × 0.80	33%	—	—
50	Jayden Maiava	QB	USC	32.6	40.8 × 0.80	9%	Starter	77
51	Katin Houser	QB	Illinois	32.6	40.7 × 0.80	25%	Starter	33
52	EJ Colson	QB	UCF	32.3	40.4 × 0.80	34%	—	—
53	Justice Haynes	RB	Georgia Tech	31.6	37.1 × 0.85*	49%	Starter	128
54	Fluff Bothwell	RB	Mississippi State	31.5	37.1 × 0.85*	19%	Elite	—
55	Nate Bennett	QB	Baylor	31.5	39.4 × 0.80	30%	—	—
56	Brad Jackson	QB	Texas State	30.8	38.5 × 0.80	30%	—	—
57	Kevin Jennings	QB	SMU	29.9	37.3 × 0.80	25%	—	—
58	CJ Bailey	QB	NC State	29.7	37.1 × 0.80	28%	Starter	125
59	Beau Pribula	QB	Virginia	29.2	36.5 × 0.80	37%	—	—
60	Chase Jenkins	QB	Kansas	28.7	35.9 × 0.80	34%	—	—
61	Gunner Stockton	QB	Georgia	28.6	35.7 × 0.80	41%	—	—
62	KJ Duff	TE	Rutgers	26.1	27.5 × 0.95	21%	Starter	103
63	Theo Melin Ohrstrom	TE	SMU	26.1	27.5 × 0.95	28%	Starter	131
64	Duce Robinson	TE	Florida State	24.4	25.6 × 0.95	13%	Starter	80
65	Cedric Hawkins	RB	Arkansas State	23.9	28.1 × 0.85*	53%	Starter	150
66	Garrett Oakley	TE	Kansas State	20.9	22.1 × 0.95	35%	Elite	170
67	John Mateer	QB	Oklahoma	20.0	25.0 × 0.80	28%	—	110
68	Benjamin Brahmer	WR	Penn State	17.7	16.1 × 1.10	24%	Starter	74

* Age not on file yet for this back, so the RB age adjustment is skipped (multiplier ×1.00) until it lands.

How this differs from the big board

Built from the same models as the big board — here's exactly how the lens differs. The base is the served career-value model score, untouched. On top of it sit three documented adjustments, all shown per player in the table:

Dynasty score = model score × position multiplier (1QB) × RB age multiplier

Position: QB ×0.80, RB ×0.85, WR ×1.10, TE ×0.95 — QB scarcity by format, the RB career-length discount, the WR longevity premium, the TE slow-onboarding haircut.
RB age cliff: RB only: 1.00 at age 22 or younger at draft, minus 0.05 per year older, floor 0.85. When we don't have a player's age on file, no adjustment is applied and the row says so.
Tier reads: shown only where the tier model itself stands behind them; when it isn't confident, you get a dash, not a guess.

The multipliers are round numbers encoding dynasty-market convention (QB scarcity by format, the RB age cliff, WR longevity, the TE year-3 breakout) — convention, not Draftanomics research. The model signal is entirely in the base. College production volume (target and workload share) is already inside the base score as model features — it isn't double-counted here. See methodology for how the career-value model is fit and validated.