3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Charles Cross as a first-round pick at #12 (range #2-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Chris Lindstrom (Franchise), Dalton Risner (Franchise), Andre Dillard (Contributor). Ceiling is Chris Lindstrom (Franchise); floor is Andre Dillard (Contributor). PPA avg_all 0.625 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #12 and the room's #12 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Marquis Hayes as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #101-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Prince Tega Wanogho (Bust), Logan Stenberg (Bust), Tremayne Anchrum (Bust). Ceiling is Tyre Phillips (Contributor); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Prince Tega Wanogho, Logan Stenberg, Tremayne Anchrum. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #137 — a 55-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kenyon Green as a first-round pick at #27 (range #14-#40, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Orlando Brown Jr. (Franchise), Cody Ford (Starter), Greg Little (Contributor). Ceiling is Orlando Brown Jr. (Franchise); floor is Greg Little (Contributor). RAS 2.95 (29th percentile vs OL prospects in a 91-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #27 and the room's #27 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.