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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
MH
Marquis Hayes
OL · Oklahoma
— · — · —
SB
Spencer Burford
OL · Texas-San Antonio
— · — · —
LS
Lecitus Smith
OL · Virginia Tech
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marquis Hayes
Predicted pick
#137
range #101–#173
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#53
on 2 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Spencer Burford
Predicted pick
#162
range #143–#181
Bust probability· rough estimate
15%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#157
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Lecitus Smith
Predicted pick
#153
range #131–#175
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#139
on 5 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marquis Hayes· Offensive line
  • Spencer Burford· Offensive line
  • Lecitus Smith· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarquis Hayes50
  • AthleticismLecitus Smith18
  • AgeSpencer Burford60
  • ConsensusMarquis Hayes22
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marquis Hayes50
  • Breakout ageMarquis Hayes50
  • WorkloadMarquis Hayes50
  • RAS × productionMarquis Hayes0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Logan StenbergG · Bust→ shared byMarquis HayesSpencer BurfordLecitus Smith
  • Justin HerronOT · Contributor→ shared byMarquis HayesSpencer BurfordLecitus Smith
  • Tyre PhillipsOT · Contributor→ shared byMarquis HayesLecitus Smith
  • Hakeem AdenijiOT · Contributor→ shared bySpencer BurfordLecitus Smith
Marquis Hayes
  • Prince Tega Wanogho
    OT · #210
    Bust
  • Logan Stenbergshared
    G · #121
    Bust
  • Tremayne Anchrum
    G · #250
    Bust
  • Tyre Phillipsshared
    OT · #106
    Contributor
  • Justin Herronshared
    OT · #195
    Contributor
Spencer Burford
  • Logan Stenbergshared
    G · #121
    Bust
  • Justin Herronshared
    OT · #195
    Contributor
  • Hakeem Adenijishared
    OT · #180
    Contributor
  • Charlie Heck
    OT · #126
    Contributor
  • Nick Harris
    C · #160
    Contributor
Lecitus Smith
  • Justin Herronshared
    OT · #195
    Contributor
  • Hakeem Adenijishared
    OT · #180
    Contributor
  • Logan Stenbergshared
    G · #121
    Bust
  • Colton McKivitz
    OT · #153
    Starter
  • Tyre Phillipsshared
    OT · #106
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marquis Hayes
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.64 (36th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Prince Tega Wanogho, Logan Stenberg, Tremayne Anchrum. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #82; model has him #137 — a 55-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Spencer Burford
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.47 (44th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 6.5 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Lecitus Smith
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.13 (41th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Logan Stenberg. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #103; model has him #153 — a 50-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marquis HayesSpencer BurfordLecitus Smith· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marquis Hayes

Draftanomics projects Marquis Hayes as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #101-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Prince Tega Wanogho (Bust), Logan Stenberg (Bust), Tremayne Anchrum (Bust). Ceiling is Tyre Phillips (Contributor); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Prince Tega Wanogho, Logan Stenberg, Tremayne Anchrum. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #137 — a 55-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Spencer Burford

Draftanomics projects Spencer Burford as a mid-round flyer at #162 (range #143-#181, wide band). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Logan Stenberg (Bust), Justin Herron (Contributor), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor). Ceiling is Charlie Heck (Contributor); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). School SP+ 6.5 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.47 (44th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #162 sits within 8 spots of the room's #154 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 15% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Lecitus Smith

Draftanomics projects Lecitus Smith as a mid-round flyer at #153 (range #131-#175, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Justin Herron (Contributor), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor), Logan Stenberg (Bust). Ceiling is Colton McKivitz (Starter); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). RAS 4.13 (41th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #103 and the model won't take him before #153 — a 50-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.