3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marquis Hayes as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #101-#173, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Prince Tega Wanogho (Bust), Logan Stenberg (Bust), Tremayne Anchrum (Bust). Ceiling is Tyre Phillips (Contributor); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Prince Tega Wanogho, Logan Stenberg, Tremayne Anchrum. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #137 — a 55-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Linderbaum as a first-round pick at #11 (range #1-#41, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Greg Little (Contributor), Cody Ford (Starter), Tyrell Crosby (Contributor). Ceiling is Dalton Risner (Franchise); floor is Tyrell Crosby (Contributor). RAS 3.75 (37th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #11 sits within 8 spots of the room's #19 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Spencer Burford as a mid-round flyer at #162 (range #143-#181, wide band). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Logan Stenberg (Bust), Justin Herron (Contributor), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor). Ceiling is Charlie Heck (Contributor); floor is Justin Herron (Contributor). School SP+ 6.5 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.47 (44th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #162 sits within 8 spots of the room's #154 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 15% bust probability break ties on draft day.