3 prospects · 2020 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Michael Ojemudia (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #116-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Myrick (Bust), Howard Wilson, Christian Campbell. Ceiling is Nick Nelson (Contributor); floor is Christian Campbell. 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jalen Myrick, Rasul Douglas. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Reggie Robinson II (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #186 (range #162-#210, wide band). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Shaquill Griffin (Bust), Dane Cruikshank (Contributor), M.J. Stewart (Contributor). Ceiling is M.J. Stewart (Contributor); floor is Dane Cruikshank (Contributor). 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Shaquill Griffin, Ahkello Witherspoon, Chidobe Awuzie. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #83 and the model won't take him before #186 — a 103-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Troy Pride Jr. (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #115 (range #64-#166, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Duke Dawson (Contributor), Senquez Golson, Blake Countess (Contributor). Ceiling is Duke Dawson (Contributor); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. School SP+ 17.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 4.93 (49th percentile at CB). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #91 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.