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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2020 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2020 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT, G)
JH
Justin Herron
OT · Wake Forest
— · — · —
HA
Hakeem Adeniji
OT · Kansas
— · — · —
LS
Logan Stenberg
G · Kentucky
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Justin Herron
Predicted pick
#220
range #180–#260
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/3
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Hakeem Adeniji
Predicted pick
#165
range #151–#179
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#98
on 3 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Logan Stenberg
Predicted pick
#106
range #84–#128
Bust probability
68%
Consensus rank
#131
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Justin Herron· Offensive line
  • Hakeem Adeniji· Offensive line
  • Logan Stenberg· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJustin Herron50
  • AthleticismHakeem Adeniji16
  • AgeLogan Stenberg69
  • ConsensusHakeem Adeniji22
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Justin Herron50
  • Breakout ageJustin Herron50
  • WorkloadJustin Herron50
  • RAS × productionLogan Stenberg73

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Brandon ParkerOT · Starter→ shared byJustin HerronHakeem Adeniji
Justin Herron
  • Greg Senat
    OT · #212
    Bust
  • Julién Davenport
    OT · #130
    TBD
  • Brandon Parkershared
    OT · #65
    Starter
  • Will Holden
    OT · #157
    TBD
  • Jordan Mailata
    OT · #233
    Franchise
Hakeem Adeniji
  • Brandon Parkershared
    OT · #65
    Starter
  • Martinas Rankin
    OT · #80
    Contributor
  • Chukwuma Okorafor
    OT · #92
    Starter
  • Alex Cappa
    OT · #94
    Franchise
  • Will Richardson
    OT · #129
    Contributor
Logan Stenberg
  • Isaac Asiata
    G · #164
    TBD
  • Cole Madison
    G · #138
    Bust
  • Nico Siragusa
    G · #122
    TBD
  • Parker Ehinger
    G · #105
    TBD
  • Jeremiah Poutasi
    G · #66
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Justin Herron
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #288; model has him #220 — a 68-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Brandon Parker, Jordan Mailata.
Hakeem Adeniji
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 4.61 (46th percentile at OT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Small-school competition
    School SP+ rating -9.8 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #29 (1=hardest).
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    4 boards have him at mean rank #112; model has him #165 — a 52-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Brandon Parker, Chukwuma Okorafor, Alex Cappa. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Logan Stenberg
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Justin HerronHakeem AdenijiLogan Stenberg· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Justin Herron

Draftanomics projects Justin Herron as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #180-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Greg Senat (Bust), Julién Davenport, Brandon Parker (Starter). Ceiling is Jordan Mailata (Franchise); floor is Will Holden. RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OT). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 68 spots ahead of the room (board #220 vs consensus #288), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Hakeem Adeniji

Draftanomics projects Hakeem Adeniji as a mid-round flyer at #165 (range #151-#179, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brandon Parker (Starter), Martinas Rankin (Contributor), Chukwuma Okorafor (Starter). Ceiling is Alex Cappa (Franchise); floor is Will Richardson (Contributor). RAS 4.61 (46th percentile at OT). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #165 — a 52-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Logan Stenberg

Draftanomics projects Logan Stenberg as a mid-round flyer at #106 (range #84-#128, wide band). Bust probability sits at 68% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Isaac Asiata, Cole Madison (Bust), Nico Siragusa. Ceiling is Jeremiah Poutasi; floor is Isaac Asiata. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #106 and the room's #106 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 68% bust probability break ties on draft day.