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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2019 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2019 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
AO
Amani Oruwariye
CB · Penn St.
23.2 yo · 6'2" · 205 lb
RY
Rock Ya-Sin
CB · Temple
22.9 yo · 6'0" · 192 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Rock Ya-Sin over Amani Oruwariye.

Decisive factor: 67-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Amani Oruwariye
Predicted pick
#95
range #66–#124
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#56
on 24 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Rock Ya-Sin
Predicted pick
#28
range #1–#78
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#49
on 25 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Amani Oruwariye· CB / S
  • Rock Ya-Sin· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAmani Oruwariye36
  • AthleticismAmani Oruwariye37
  • AgeRock Ya-Sin70
  • ConsensusAmani Oruwariye34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Amani Oruwariye50
  • Breakout ageAmani Oruwariye50
  • WorkloadAmani Oruwariye100
  • RAS × productionAmani Oruwariye26

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Rasul DouglasCB · Bust→ shared byAmani OruwariyeRock Ya-Sin
Amani Oruwariye
  • Cordrea Tankersley
    CB · #97
    Bust
  • Rasul Douglasshared
    CB · #99
    Bust
  • Adoree' Jackson
    CB · #18
    Bust
  • Zack Sanchez
    CB · #141
    Bust
  • Sidney Jones
    CB · #43
    Bust
Rock Ya-Sin
  • Artie Burns
    CB · #25
    Starter
  • Kendall Fuller
    CB · #84
    Starter
  • Juston Burris
    CB · #118
    Contributor
  • Kalan Reed
    CB · #253
    Backup
  • Rasul Douglasshared
    CB · #99
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Amani Oruwariye
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cordrea Tankersley, Rasul Douglas, Adoree' Jackson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    25 boards have him at mean rank #60; model has him #95 — a 35-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Rock Ya-Sin
Risks
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Kalan Reed, Rasul Douglas. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Amani OruwariyeRock Ya-Sin· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Amani Oruwariye

Draftanomics projects Amani Oruwariye (age 23.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #95 (range #66-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Cordrea Tankersley (Bust), Rasul Douglas (Bust), Adoree' Jackson (Bust). Ceiling is Adoree' Jackson (Bust); floor is Zack Sanchez (Bust). 5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Cordrea Tankersley, Rasul Douglas, Adoree' Jackson (+2 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #60 and the model won't take him before #95 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Rock Ya-Sin

Draftanomics projects Rock Ya-Sin (age 22.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #28 (range #1-#78, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Artie Burns (Starter), Kendall Fuller (Starter), Juston Burris (Contributor). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Kalan Reed, Rasul Douglas. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #28 against a consensus #51 is a 23-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.