3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
+0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating
−0.04 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting run def grade career avg
Draftanomics projects L.J. Collier (age 23.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #101 (range #68-#134, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Matt Judon (Starter), Derek Rivers, Jeremiah Ledbetter (Bust). Ceiling is Carl Nassib (Starter); floor is Derek Rivers. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #76 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.