3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dru Samia as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #64-#150, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Spencer Drango, Daryl Williams, Donavon Clark. Ceiling is Nick Martin; floor is Donavon Clark. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #91 — don't pay sticker price. A 58% bust probability backs the 16-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Jackson Barton as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #90-#154, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 15% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Tyrus Thompson, Rob Havenstein. Ceiling is Rob Havenstein; floor is Sam Tevi. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 111 spots ahead of the room (board #122 vs consensus #233), and at a 15% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Lamont Gaillard as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #128-#206, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Ethan Pocic, Max Tuerk, Joey Hunt. Ceiling is Ethan Pocic; floor is Joey Hunt. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #109 and the model won't take him before #167 — a 58-spot markdown. A 58% bust probability backs the 58-spot markdown.