3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Braden Smith as a Day 2 pick at #43 (range #1-#99, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Joshua Garnett, Vadal Alexander, Germain Ifedi. Ceiling is Joshua Garnett; floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a value lean: #43 against a consensus #66 is a 23-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Quenton Nelson as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#65, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Joshua Garnett, Germain Ifedi, Vadal Alexander. Ceiling is Joshua Garnett; floor is Vadal Alexander. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #10 sits within 6 spots of the room's #4 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Wynn as a first-round pick at #21 (range #1-#69, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Taylor Decker, Ronnie Stanley, Shon Coleman. Ceiling is Ronnie Stanley; floor is Kyle Murphy. Drafted #23 by NWE in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #21 sits within 4 spots of the room's #26 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.