3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Duke Ejiofor (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #79-#129, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Carl Nassib (Starter), Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Jihad Ward (Starter). Ceiling is Nate Orchard (Franchise); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #85 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Arden Key (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #56-#84, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Carl Nassib (Starter), Shaq Lawson (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #70 sits within 10 spots of the room's #60 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Breeland Speaks (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #196-#228, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Jihad Ward (Starter). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #78 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 134-spot markdown. The 134-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.