2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 127-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 65 points lower and $6M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joshua Dobbs (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #165 (range #111-#219, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brett Hundley (Starter), Marcus Mariota (Franchise), Trevor Siemian (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Mariota (Franchise); floor is Brett Hundley (Starter). Career trajectory in passing yards: 695 → 1206 → 2291 → 2946. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #135 by PIT in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #165 — a 84-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Mitchell Trubisky (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #38 (range #1-#76, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Mariota (Franchise), Jameis Winston (Franchise), Bryce Petty (Starter). Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Garrett Grayson. Career trajectory in passing yards: 459 → 555 → 3748. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 3748 passing yards vs 3-season mean 1587. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #38 sits within 5 spots of the room's #33 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.