2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 86-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and $14M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Alvin Kamara (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #33 (range #1-#78, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Mike Davis (Starter), Karlos Williams (Bust), Ameer Abdullah (Franchise). Ceiling is Melvin Gordon (Franchise); floor is Mike Davis (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Karlos Williams, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #33 against a consensus #47 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Wayne Gallman (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #77-#161, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: T.J. Yeldon (Franchise), Karlos Williams (Bust), Kenny Hilliard. Ceiling is T.J. Yeldon (Franchise); floor is Kenny Hilliard. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Karlos Williams, David Cobb. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #101 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.