3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tanoh Kpassagnon (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #71 (range #31-#111, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 14% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brian Mihalik (Bust), Marcus Hardison, Ryan Russell (Franchise). Ceiling is Nate Orchard (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. The call is a value lean: #71 against a consensus #83 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 14% bust number says size it modestly.
Draftanomics projects Deatrich Wise Jr. (age 22.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #58-#120, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Frank Clark (Franchise), Shaquille Riddick, Trey Flowers (Franchise). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. The call is a value lean: #89 against a consensus #107 is a 18-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Dawuane Smoot (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #109 (range #67-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Preston Smith (Franchise), Brian Mihalik (Bust), Ryan Russell (Franchise). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. School SP+ rating -6.7 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #42 (1=hardest). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #90 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.