3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Reuben Foster (age 23.1 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#47, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Xzavier Dickson, Michael Bennett (Starter), Gabe Wright (Franchise). Ceiling is Gabe Wright (Franchise); floor is Xzavier Dickson. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #10 and the room's #9 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Alex Anzalone (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #193 (range #162-#224, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tony Steward (Bust), Michael Bennett (Starter), Geneo Grissom (Contributor). Ceiling is Gabe Wright (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #95 and the model won't take him before #193 — a 98-spot markdown. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Duke Riley (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #108 (range #80-#136, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ramik Wilson (Starter), Arik Armstead (Franchise), Shane Ray (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Ramik Wilson (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #93 — don't pay sticker price. The 15-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.