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rank#193$1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Alex Anzalone at pick #193; he was actually picked #76 by NOR. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.2 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $13M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#193LB·Florida
The league moved faster than our board — NOR took him at No. 76, 117 picks ahead of our No. 193 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Alex Anzalone at #193 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NOR took him at No. 76, 117 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 46%, elevated against the position baseline. The room had him #153 pre-draft; our board sat 40 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports