3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Adoree' Jackson (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #62 (range #27-#97, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ronald Darby (Franchise), Alex Carter (Bust), Jalen Collins (Starter). Ceiling is Ronald Darby (Franchise); floor is P.J. Williams (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Alex Carter, Charles Gaines. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #42 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Sidney Jones (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #35 (range #1-#74, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: P.J. Williams (Starter), Alex Carter (Bust), Ronald Darby (Franchise). Ceiling is Ronald Darby (Franchise); floor is P.J. Williams (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Alex Carter, Charles Gaines. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #35 sits within 6 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Marshon Lattimore (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #18 (range #1-#43, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Eric Rowe (Franchise), Ronald Darby (Franchise), Bobby McCain (Starter). Ceiling is Eric Rowe (Franchise); floor is Bobby McCain (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #18 sits within 11 spots of the room's #7 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.