3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects JuJu Smith-Schuster (age 20.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #90-#154, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Tony Lippett (Starter), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Tony Lippett (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #66 and the model won't take him before #122 — a 56-spot markdown. The 56-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Corey Davis (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #11 (range #1-#32, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Breshad Perriman (Starter), Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Jaelen Strong (Franchise). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Justin Hardy (Starter). School SP+ 11.5 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #11 and the room's #13 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Mike Williams (age 22.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #24 (range #1-#60, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tony Lippett (Starter), Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Ceiling is DeVante Parker (Franchise); floor is Tony Lippett (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #24 sits within 9 spots of the room's #15 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.