2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 28-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 14 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jeremiah Ledbetter (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #181 (range #141-#221, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Shaquille Riddick, Nate Orchard (Franchise), Za'Darius Smith (Franchise). Ceiling is Nate Orchard (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #167 — don't pay sticker price. A 63% bust probability backs the 14-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Avery Moss (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #153 (range #113-#193, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 49% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brian Mihalik (Bust), Shaquille Riddick, Za'Darius Smith (Franchise). Ceiling is Nate Orchard (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 88 spots ahead of the room (board #153 vs consensus #241) — but size the bet for the 49% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.