3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Shelton Gibson (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #173 (range #115-#231, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Tony Lippett (Starter). Ceiling is DeVante Parker (Franchise); floor is Dezmin Lewis (Starter). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 60 → 887 → 951. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #102 and the model won't take him before #173 — a 70-spot markdown. A 77% bust probability backs the 70-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Ryan Switzer (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #241 (range #192-#290, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Devin Funchess (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Dezmin Lewis (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #241 — a 136-spot markdown. The 136-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects JuJu Smith-Schuster (age 20.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #122 (range #90-#154, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Tony Lippett (Starter), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Tony Lippett (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #66 and the model won't take him before #122 — a 56-spot markdown. The 56-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.