3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Walker (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #18-#112, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Max Valles, David Mayo (Contributor), Bud Dupree (Franchise). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Max Valles. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #65 against a consensus #93 is a 28-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Jarrad Davis (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #10-#80, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Leonard Williams (Franchise), Martrell Spaight (Contributor), Dante Fowler (Starter). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Martrell Spaight (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #45 sits within 6 spots of the room's #39 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Alex Anzalone (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #193 (range #162-#224, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tony Steward (Bust), Michael Bennett (Starter), Geneo Grissom (Contributor). Ceiling is Gabe Wright (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #95 and the model won't take him before #193 — a 98-spot markdown. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.