2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 30-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Julién Davenport as a mid-round flyer at #133 (range #112-#154, wide band). Bust probability sits at 67% — scary. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #133 sits within 5 spots of the room's #128 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 67% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Will Holden as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #103 (range #43-#163, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jake Rodgers, Denzelle Good, Andrew Donnal. Ceiling is Brandon Scherff; floor is Denzelle Good. The call is a value lean: #103 against a consensus #131 is a 28-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 78% bust number says size it modestly.