2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 106-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $24M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Mack Hollins (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #229 (range #208-#250, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: DeAndre Smelter (Bust), Keith Mumphery (Starter), Darren Waller (Contributor). Ceiling is Tony Lippett (Starter); floor is Neal Sterling (Contributor). Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #229 — a 133-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Cooper Kupp (age 23.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #93-#153, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: DeAndre Smelter (Bust), Neal Sterling (Contributor), Da'Ron Brown. Ceiling is JJ Nelson (Franchise); floor is Da'Ron Brown. Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #76 and the model won't take him before #123 — a 47-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.