3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Takkarist McKinley (age 21.5 at draft) as a first-round pick at #21 (range #1-#75, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Shaquille Riddick, Nate Orchard (Franchise), Za'Darius Smith (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #21 sits within 8 spots of the room's #29 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Tarell Basham (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #117 (range #75-#159, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Hardison, Ryan Russell (Franchise), Brian Mihalik (Bust). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #78 and the model won't take him before #117 — a 39-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Derek Rivers (age 23.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #31 (range #14-#48, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #83 by NWE in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #31 against a consensus #56 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.