2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 22-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $12M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Deshaun Watson (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #16 (range #1-#54, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Mariota (Franchise), Bryce Petty (Starter), Jameis Winston (Franchise). Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Garrett Grayson. Career trajectory in passing yards: 1466 → 4104 → 4593. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #16 sits within 10 spots of the room's #26 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Mitchell Trubisky (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #38 (range #1-#76, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Marcus Mariota (Franchise), Jameis Winston (Franchise), Bryce Petty (Starter). Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Garrett Grayson. Career trajectory in passing yards: 459 → 555 → 3748. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 3748 passing yards vs 3-season mean 1587. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #38 sits within 5 spots of the room's #33 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.