3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brian Allen (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #166-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Craig Mager (Starter), Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Trae Waynes (Starter). Ceiling is Trae Waynes (Starter); floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #179 and the model won't take him before #220 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Adrian Colbert (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #249 (range #213-#285, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 30% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Tevin Mitchel, Craig Mager (Starter). Ceiling is Craig Mager (Starter); floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 504 spots ahead of the room (board #249 vs consensus #753), and at a 30% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Joshua Holsey (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #208-#296, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 37% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Josh Shaw (Starter), Tevin Mitchel. Ceiling is Craig Mager (Starter); floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 123 spots ahead of the room (board #252 vs consensus #375), and at a 37% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.