3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zack Sanchez (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #178 (range #171-#185, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #90 and the model won't take him before #178 — a 88-spot markdown. The 88-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Xavien Howard (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #125 (range #118-#132, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. 40-yard dash of 4.58s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #125 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — cb slow 40 (4.58s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tavon Young (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #152 (range #145-#159, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. School SP+ 6.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #99 and the model won't take him before #152 — a 53-spot markdown. The 53-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.