Refreshed just now
rank#125$1.1M
Big 12→ MIA's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Xavien Howard at pick #125; he was actually picked #38 by MIA. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.9 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $19M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#125CB·Baylor
The league moved faster than our board — MIA took him at No. 38, 87 picks ahead of our No. 125 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Xavien Howard at #125 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and MIA took him at No. 38, 87 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 32%, near the position baseline. The room had him #131 pre-draft; our board was 6 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports