3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Lac Edwards (age 24.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #214 (range #193-#235, wide band). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. Age 24.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 539 spots ahead of the room (board #214 vs consensus #753), and at a 21% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Drew Kaser (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #168 (range #158-#178, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 138 spots ahead of the room (board #168 vs consensus #306), and at a 35% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Riley Dixon (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #134 (range #120-#148, wide band). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 196 spots ahead of the room (board #134 vs consensus #330), and at a 38% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.