3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kyle Murphy as a mid-round flyer at #111 (range #104-#118, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #98 — don't pay sticker price. The 13-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects John Theus as a Day 3 dart throw at #176 (range #169-#183, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The call is a value lean: #176 against a consensus #202 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 26% bust number says size it modestly.
Draftanomics projects Shon Coleman as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #29-#43, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #36 vs consensus #72), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.