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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
MM
Marcus Mariota
QB · Oregon
21.5 yo · 6'4" · 222 lb
GG
Garrett Grayson
QB · Colorado St.
23.9 yo · — · —
JW
Jameis Winston
QB · Florida St.
21.3 yo · 6'4" · 231 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marcus Mariota
Predicted pick
#94
range #94–#251
Bust probability· rough estimate
8%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$20Mmodel
Garrett Grayson
Predicted pick
#221
range #138–#272
Bust probability· rough estimate
31%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel
Jameis Winston
Predicted pick
#46
range #115–#212
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marcus Mariota· QB
  • Garrett Grayson· QB
  • Jameis Winston· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarcus Mariota0
  • AthleticismMarcus Mariota50
  • AgeMarcus Mariota100
  • ConsensusMarcus Mariota100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marcus Mariota50
  • Breakout ageMarcus Mariota50
  • WorkloadMarcus Mariota50
  • RAS × productionMarcus Mariota50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Marcus Mariota
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Garrett Grayson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jameis Winston
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marcus Mariota
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Garrett Grayson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jameis Winston
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marcus MariotaGarrett GraysonJameis Winston· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marcus Mariota

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.02 age; +0.02 charting total career snaps

Garrett Grayson

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; +0.03 position role purity

Jameis Winston

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 production trajectory