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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
DG
Dorial Green-Beckham
WR · Oklahoma
22.0 yo · 6'5" · 237 lb
TL
Tony Lippett
WR · Michigan St.
22.8 yo · 6'2" · 192 lb
NA
Nelson Agholor
WR · USC
21.9 yo · 6'0" · 198 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Dorial Green-Beckham
Predicted pick
#13
range #22–#148
Bust probability
29%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
Tony Lippett
Predicted pick
#236
range #99–#251
Bust probability
11%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Nelson Agholor
Predicted pick
#27
range #36–#162
Bust probability
13%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$19Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Dorial Green-Beckham· RB / WR / TE
  • Tony Lippett· RB / WR / TE
  • Nelson Agholor· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDorial Green-Beckham33
  • AthleticismDorial Green-Beckham40
  • AgeNelson Agholor97
  • ConsensusNelson Agholor89
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Dorial Green-Beckham50
  • Breakout ageDorial Green-Beckham50
  • WorkloadDorial Green-Beckham100
  • RAS × productionDorial Green-Beckham0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Dorial Green-Beckham
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tony Lippett
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Nelson Agholor
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Dorial Green-Beckham
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tony Lippett
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Nelson Agholor
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Dorial Green-BeckhamTony LippettNelson Agholor· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Dorial Green-Beckham

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Tony Lippett

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 production trajectory; −0.02 scout consensus

Nelson Agholor

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating