3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dexter McDonald (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #186 (range #172-#200, wide band). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #186 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Tevin Mitchel (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #72 (range #58-#86, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #182 by WAS in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #72 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Craig Mager (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #178 (range #157-#199, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #178 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.