Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
TS
Trevor Siemian
QB · Northwestern
23.3 yo · — · —
GG
Garrett Grayson
QB · Colorado St.
23.9 yo · — · —
SM
Sean Mannion
QB · Oregon St.
23.0 yo · 6'6" · 229 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Trevor Siemian
Predicted pick
#222
range #139–#273
Bust probability· rough estimate
34%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Garrett Grayson
Predicted pick
#221
range #138–#272
Bust probability· rough estimate
31%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel
Sean Mannion
Predicted pick
#103
range #103–#260
Bust probability· rough estimate
34%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Trevor Siemian· QB
  • Garrett Grayson· QB
  • Sean Mannion· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTrevor Siemian100
  • AthleticismTrevor Siemian50
  • AgeSean Mannion20
  • ConsensusTrevor Siemian12
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Trevor Siemian50
  • Breakout ageTrevor Siemian50
  • WorkloadTrevor Siemian50
  • RAS × productionTrevor Siemian50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Trevor Siemian
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Garrett Grayson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Sean Mannion
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Trevor Siemian
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Garrett Grayson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Sean Mannion
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Trevor SiemianGarrett GraysonSean Mannion· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Trevor Siemian

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.03 Power-5 production share

Garrett Grayson

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; +0.03 position role purity

Sean Mannion

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.04 production trajectory; −0.03 age