3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brian Mihalik (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #110 (range #89-#131, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #237 by PHI in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #110 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Marcus Hardison (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #162-#204, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #135 by CIN in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #183 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Ryan Russell (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #161 (range #151-#171, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #161 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.