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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Aireontae Ersery
On the live board, bust risk sits at 15% and the realistic range is No. 6 to No. 136.
Big Ten→ HOU's 2025 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Aireontae Ersery at pick #32; he was actually picked #48 by HOU. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Aireontae Ersery at #32 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and HOU took him at No. 48. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and top-50 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 15%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #45 pre-draft; our board was 13 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports