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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. Amarius Mims
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Amarius Mims
2024 NFL Draft prospect

Amarius Mims

OL·Georgia·SEC

On the live board, bust risk sits at 8% and the realistic range is No. 1 to No. 55.

12rank#12$6.1MCompEvan Neal
SEC→ CIN's 2024 class
Print sheet
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Amarius Mims at pick #12; he was actually picked #18 by CIN. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.1 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (1% recent-3, 2% peak across 1 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $8M/yr.

Amarius MimsOLDraftanomics #12
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProduction1Risk1Team fit5Will he be there?Comps5Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction
#122nd-deal AAV at this slot$6.1M/yrOL·Georgia

We had him No. 12 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — CIN took him at No. 18. The seasons since are the scoreboard.

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production1

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk1

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps5

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics's take

Draftanomics had Amarius Mims at #12 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and CIN took him at No. 18. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 8%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #23 pre-draft; our board was 11 spots higher.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#12
1st Roundrange #1–#55 · volatile
Bust Probability?
8%
0.96× Offensive line class avg (9%)
≈ class avg
Model trust: MODERATE
Actual NFL Pick?
#18
CIN · Rd 1
Career Outcome · 2 seasons?
12.3
6.1 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc
Elite
7%[6–8]
Bust
10%[9–10]
Starter
24%[23–25]
Role
60%[59–61]

Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.

The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.

Projected second contract
$8.5M($0.2M–$16.7M)/yr model
Solid starter OL contract
Bust risk
40%
comp-based — 2 of 5 closest comps busted
Model says: 8%⚠ the Offensive line bust model has no real track record here — trust the comps above instead
Public-board consensus

28 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Aligned
Gap (actual − predicted)
+6

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: how many boards rank him top-100, scout consensus, and athleticism (RAS). Nothing in the profile pulled the grade down.

Scout consensus
+0.07
Athleticism
+0.03
HS recruit rating
+0.02
Age
+0.02

Model read

Model grade
0.84 of 1
Confidence?
57%
Predicted round
1

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
NFL play quality?
1
/ peak 2
Below-average play
Across 1 NFL season.
4-tier outlook?
Role
Model expects a depth / rotational role
Model trust: MODERATE
Elite
7%
Starter
24%
Role
60%
Bust
10%

Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.

Model market value
$8.5M
($0.2M – $16.7M)
solid starter pay
Model-predicted second-deal AAV ($M/yr).

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Risk profile is clean

Risk score12· CLEAN

Everything that could go wrong with Amarius Mims, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Predicted-pick range#1–55 · 54-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Bust probability8%
    Low bust risk by the model's read.
  • Public-board coverage28 sources
    Plenty of public boards have a read — the grade is well corroborated.

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
No risk flags raised.
Reasons to buy
Strong comp group
high
4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Teven Jenkins, Penei Sewell, Samuel Cosmi (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at Offensive line, age, and recent capital invested.

SF#1 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
NO#2 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters8Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
LV#3 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters6Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
MIA#4 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters9Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle
GB#5 fit
Need at positionComfortableQuality starters7Roster spots short0Recent picks spent hereLittle

Historical comps

Side-by-side with top comps →

Closest historical matches among prior Offensive line prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.

PlayerPosYearPickSnap trajectoryCareer arcDistance
Evan NealOL2022#7
↓17 pts
Contributor1.44
Teven JenkinsOL2021#39
→1 pts
Starter1.77
Penei SewellOL2021#7
↓16 pts
Franchise1.91
Samuel CosmiOL2021#51
→2 pts
Starter2.17
Rashawn SlaterOL2021#13
↑5 pts
Franchise2.23
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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