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2022 NFL Draft prospect
Desmond Ridder
age 22.7 · 6'3" · 211 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 15% and the realistic range is No. 13 to No. 74.
rank#31CompJustin Herbert
Big 12→ ATL's 2022 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Desmond Ridder at pick #31; he was actually picked #74 by ATL. 3 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.9 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.0M a year. So far, that's a point for our board. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (1% recent-3, 4% peak across 3 seasons). Model predicted $7M/yr; actual $1M (over by $6M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#31QB·Cincinnati
We had him No. 31 on draft night; ATL didn't call his name until No. 74 — a 43-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production3
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports